Rotarians ventured into a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at how global military leaders prepare for the toughest decisions imaginable. Our guest speaker, Grady Dunn, Senior NATO Wargaming Coordinator, explained how nations rehearse strategy long before real-world consequences unfold. With over 20 years in joint, coalition, and naval intelligence operations, Dunn has led specialized teams, shaped intelligence strategy, and now helps NATO partners navigate complex challenges through the science and art of wargaming.
Dunn defined wargaming as “rehearsing decisions before lives are on the line.” Far from the tabletop games many might imagine, wargaming is a structured, rules-based simulation designed to test decision-making under intense pressure. Its origins date back to the late 1800s, when the Prussian Army developed Kriegsspiel (German for “war game”) to explore different battle scenarios. The U.S. Naval War College later embraced the practice in the 1920s, using it to shape strategies that proved pivotal during World War II.
Modern wargaming, Dunn explained, serves three essential purposes: education, concept development and planning, and leadership development. With today’s technology, wargaming enables leaders to explore risks, test new ideas, and challenge assumptions before investing billions of dollars in equipment or committing forces. “Plans,” Dunn explained, “are assumptions in disguise.” By predicting the future through simulated decisions, hidden assumptions are surfaced and examined.
A key benefit of wargaming is creating a “safe-to-fail space.” This is an environment where participants can take risks, learn, and engage in honest, blame-free discussion. Dunn emphasized that the value lies not only in the outcomes, but in the conversation itself.
Importantly, Dunn highlighted that wargaming’s applications extend far beyond the military. Local governments, businesses, and civic organizations can all use similar methods to stress-test strategies, invite constructive challenge, and strengthen decision-making.
